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I love how economists make all sorts or ridiculous claims by looking at the historical stock market. Two or three data points is not a trend, if you have 3 users and they all register, that doesn't mean your conversion rate is 100%.

Sometimes we forget that 100 years of data is nothing compared to human history and does not signify anything about the future.



The author is not an economist.

Just like people writing about science in the newspapers are rarely actual scientists, people writing about economy in the news are rarely economists.


remember Moore's law? that was based on two or three data points :)


but was it a self-fulfilling prophecy?


sure, most marketing laws that succeed tend to be self-fulfilling


a reference to back up this particular claim maybe?


Moore's diagram's in his origonal paper, presumably. However, while he only plotted a few data points he presumably used his experience with the semi-conductor industry in general and so actually had more.

ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf


most industry insiders will tell you that Moore's law is a marketing law that drives timelines more than anything else.

sure he used his experience, but CEO's have also been known to make wild and extravagant statements :)


http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/faculty/dick.rumelt/Docs/Cases/...


Knowledgesale, I couldn't comment on your question about why there is no "kickstarter for investing" or find your twitter to say this ...

It was called Prosper.com. Actually there were many attempts at exactly what you're talking about. So far they've all failed.


oh, very interesting, thank you




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