Your post makes a lot of sense to me from a fundamental econ perspective, however, I know I don't know enough about the topic of crypto-currencies in general to trust my opinion much. I'd love to see the strongest possible counter-argument to yours to help me understand why so many people seem to disagree.
All crytocoins have their own programming and therefore their own general behaviors that fail to generalize.
My post was largely based on the TITANIUM / IRON saga of the cryptocoin world, just a few months ago ("Titan" for short). I'd suggest you read up on the mechanics of how / why that crashed.